Alexander Falev
CEO, ROSGOSSTRAKH BANK
If the economic situation continues to deteriorate (job cuts, declining of the real incomes, increasing of the daily base cost of borrowers), we will certainly see a significant increase in absolute figures of arrears, especially in the area of unsecured consumer loans and car loans in the mass market segment.
Moreover, regardless of the economic situation, we will see the growth of the relative indicators of arrears due to a decrease in the growth rate of the market, in particular, the volume of new loans.
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Yelena Rechkalova
Bank, Adviser to the Chairman of the Board of Directors
Currently, the risks are concentrated in the lower mass client segment - in 2013, 48% of loans were the short-term loans in the amount of not more than 50 thousand rubles. This is due to the fact that at the initial stage of development of the industry the banks were mainly offering products for this high-risk category of clients. Risks in this segment are being accumulated and the payment discipline of borrowers deteriorates. But at the same time, thanks to tougher requirements for borrowers and the use of more conservative risk policies, overdue indicators of new generation of loans are significantly improved, however, with a simultaneous decrease in the volume of loans granted.
In general, in Russia we can talk about the "exhaustion of the credit market for physical entities":
1 According to the NBCH and HSE data as of June 2014 the debt load of the Russian borrowers can be evaluated as moderate: only 2.4% of the active population have more than 4 credits, the typical borrower in the Russian Federation spends 26.07% of the monthly income on repayment and servicing of their loan obligations. Only the lower mass market has been refinanced, but 41% of the population is below the poverty line after the payment of the loan payments.
2 At the beginning of 2014, 80% of Russian citizens are relatively free to offer them loans: according to research (in particular, HSE), only 26% of citizens have outstanding loans, 67% of the population have no debts at all, including not only to banks and MFIs, but also there is no debt on utility bills, including 13% have debts that do not exceed a monthly average income of their families.
The growth rate of arrears will depend, on the one hand, on the macroeconomic factors - economic weakening and declining incomes (real available income compared to 2013 has decreased by 2.9%), on the other hand, on the speed of transforming of the banks’ business models with the reorientation of the lower mass for more profitable customer segments, whose products are characterized by lower rates, larger amounts and terms, and a lower level of risk. The growth rate of the share of these products in the retail credit portfolio with simultaneous wash-off of short-term and high-risk loans would determine the level of arrears in 12 months.
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Alla Soldatova
Eastern Express bank, Director for quality and service
The growth rate of arrears will be slow. However, we should not expect stop and especially reduction of the amount of the overdue portfolio of the banking system in the nearest future: dramatic improvements in solvency of the clients is not observed.
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