Sergey Burtsev
Chelyabinskinvestbank, Chairman of the Board
The drastic cutback of the possibility of borrowing money on external markets can be compensated by the increase of the ruble monetary mass. But in order not to allow the growth of inflation it is worth looking for money in other places and other countries. It is quite possible that the situation will stabilize by itself – just time is needed.
In case the volume of external loans grows short due to the decrease of possibilities of attraction of means from the capital market, there will be no need of gold-exchange reserves in that amount, and then it will be possible to invent mechanisms on how to substitute the involvement of funds from abroad with the help of CB’s gold-exchange reserves. Considering that yearly the exports of goods exceed the imports of goods by 200 billion dollars, such possibility should exist in theory.
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Yelena Fedotkova
Promsvyazbank, Manager on research and analysis of debt markets
The Asian markets can partly soften the situation, but to my understanding they can hardly pass on the baton. Besides, the pay-off of own external debt (38 billion dollars from August 2014 to March 2015) and most likely the refinancing of the larger part of the corporate external debt (83 billion dollars) have their influence on the funding of banks. Aside from the mentioned, according to the first half summary of the year of 2014, we noticed an outflow of physical entities, which is a precedent by itself. As a result, the banks will be obliged to reduce the speeds of the growth of crediting and rely on the government’s support. Generally speaking, the government already provides its support by converting “crisis” loans into the level 1 capital.
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Victor Chetverikov
National rating agency, Director General
Any shortening of borrowings or shutting down of credit lines is not observed yet.
There are recommendations for banks with regard to their operations. Those in majority refer to bonds placed abroad. Mainly the issuers including banks will have to redeem them for which they need to involve their own stockholders, partners, funds of CB of Russia or place additional issues on the domestic market for the purpose of refinancing them or their substitution.
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