Sergey Burtsev
Chelyabinskinvestbank, Chairman of the Board
I assume that considering the current political situation the key interest rate will hold out on the mentioned level at least during half a year period. By the end of the year, when the results of the purchasing balance will be summarized, a slowdown of outflow of the capital will be registered and the situation might change.
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Yelena Fedotkova
Promsvyazbank, Manager on research and analysis of debt markets
In connection with the applied response-sanctions on behalf of Russia we forecast the possibility of growth of inflation up to the level of 8.2 -8.7% by the end of the year. Correspondingly, since in its monetary-credit policy the CB assigns primary importance to inflation, the key interest rate can be raised for 100 more points, in particular by 50p.p.-s in September and for another 50 in December.
On the other hand, if CB takes a decision to change (raise) the inflation target for the current year (in July the levels between 6to 6.5% were voiced), then in principle, the key interest rate can be hold on today’s level, but then the consumers’ demand will fall under pressure for the fact of reduction of the population’s real incomes.
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Victor Chetverikov
National rating agency, Director General
At least for another month or maybe for two at best. Then a reconsideration towards the rise is probable.
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