Sergey Burtsev
Chelyabinskinvestbank, Chairman of the Board
Banks have already started to raise the interest rates. I think that within a six month period the interest rates on loans will grow by 1 percent point. That will create conditions for growth of rates on deposits, holdings and will bring to the increase of rates difference between the deposits in rubles and foreign currency, which will promote increase of ruble monetary supply in banks.
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Yelena Fedotkova
Promsvyazbank, Manager on research and analysis of debt markets
In average, throughout the sector in 2014 the time-lag between the rise of the key interest rate and growth of rates on corporate loans made 2 months. Along with that the short-term rates were reacting more sensitively and here the growth of the key interest rate is mostly won back.
In general, there exists a potential for growth of interest rates up to 1 p.p. by the end of the year and on long-term loans: – up to 1.5 p.p. The speed of growth of corporate loans during the first half of the current year was rather bound to internal processes than the increase of rates. In particular, the actual complete shutdown of international platforms brought to the necessity of refinancing on the account of domestic resources. As a result, at a general negative climate the dynamics of the growth of corporate crediting was high (up to annual 18%; a year before the indicator was 14%).
Retail crediting reacts much moderately to CB’s rising of key interest rate. In my opinion, that is connected with the internal processes happening inside the sector – i.e. concentration of market players on a more qualified segment at a common and quite sharp reduction of tempos of growth of crediting volume in the retail segment. Moreover, especially the retail crediting, the tempi of which are dropping, was characterized by high rates. Whereas, as far as we are concerned, a change of trend in favor of rates growth is observed. The latter is inclusively conditioned on the growing cost of funding.
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Victor Chetverikov
National rating agency, Director General
If the trend in raising the key interest rate persists then on the one hand that will push the banks, though quite conditionally, to the will of placing large volumes on IBC market. But the risks of the banking sector force the credit organizations to shift to a more conservative policy in donorship at IBC market. A large number of banks prefer to orientate themselves at commercial crediting by withstanding a very restrained policy regarding the retail loans (here the influence of the MFOs is more perceptible). And it is perfectly obvious that exactly the retail and corporate crediting along with qualified underwriting and risk assessment can secure for the banks the required level of profitability for covering the costs and formation of reserves.
In theory the volumes of crediting might grow, but the availability of qualified debtors for today stays as a considerable problem for Russian economy and banking sector. So the growth will be a moderate one.
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