Sergey Burtsev
Chelyabinskinvestbank, Chairman of the Board
The rise of the key interest rate had its impact on the cost of short-term resources, thus confirming the tendency, which had begun long before the process itself. The profitability curve became more flattened. The increase of profitability on securities (bonds) lead to negative revaluation for July.
Considering the fact that the interbank market hardly drags its existence we can state the uncommonness of the situation, when the interest rate on REPO with CB on particular dates became higher than the rates on SWAP transactions. A situation when largest banks are ready to draw resources under annual 9% for a week’s period only – is abnormal.
This means that banks are ready to draw resources by hook or by crook, bravely placing short-term means into the long ones, without paying attention to the deterioration of the situation in current liquidity.
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Yelena Fedotkova
Promsvyazbank, Manager on research and analysis of debt markets
The last rise of the key interest rate by 50 reference points practically did not essentially influence the currency exchange market. At the interbank market we also experienced increase of rates by 50 pct -s as well.
Whatsoever, at present the overnight rates hold on to a lower level of the key interest rate –that’s to say below 8% whereas earlier, those were positioned closer to the upper limit of CB’s interest corridor (key rate + 1%).
Kind of anomaly became possible for the reason of generated surplus of ruble liquidity at the market, which in the nearest future most likely will be leveled at the expense of upcoming tax payments and consequently the rates will approach their logical level of 9%.
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Victor Chetverikov
National rating agency, Director General
The raise of the key interest rate is a result of the monetary-credit policy of the Central bank and its growth is a consequence of tendencies in the economic and financial spheres, which as of today display a kind of uncertainty. Inflation growth and demand for monetary funds as well as the increased risks of the financial sector force the CB to raise the rate, thus taking off the load from Russia’s financial market.
The interbank rates are less dependent on the key interest rate and the refinancing rate as compared with the commercial and consumer loans. It is rather applicable to compare the rate at IBC’s market with interest rates on SWAP operations and with profitability of “top-class” securities and state bonds of Russian issuers. So far the market is quite balanced and displays competitive dynamics on rates as compared with the enumerated instruments. It is obvious that the raise of the interest rate, though in perspective, brings to the growth of rates at the interbank and currency markets.
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